Only the Security Council does not know what happened to the Aid Flotilla including the largest Turkish ship sustaining most casualties. The Council called for ascertaining the facts. Who knows, maybe the Turkish ship sailing in international waters had invited fully armed Israeli commandoes for Turkish coffee, only to be ambushed on board. This would indeed be consistent with the Israeli PR line, that the commandos fired in self-defense killing ten and injuring 30 civilians.
Three days after the event, the Israeli press was full of criticism. Some even called for the resignation of the Defense minister. It soon became clear that the damage done far outweighs any “positive” results. Relations with Turkey, an important trade partner with Israel, and an emerging regional power, were damaged and much hard work needs to be done to have it repaired. The siege on Gaza was again headline news, and further credence was given to the growing boycott movement in different parts of the world. There was even speculation that the sanctions planned for Iran might now become more difficult as Turkey now is less likely to cooperate.
Throughout the Arab world, condemnation and anger were widespread. Demonstrations took place in almost all Arab capitals and calls for abandoning the Arab Peace Initiative first announced by the Arab League in Beirut in 2002, and reaffirmed afterwards, were heard. Kuwait was the first Arab country to announce it withdrew its support of the Arab Peace Initiative after its Parliament demanded that it should do so.
Egypt in particular, was deeply embarrassed by the attack on the ships since it participates directly in the siege on Gaza. The only crossing from Gaza to Egypt near the town of Rafah has been closed for three years now, and opened only intermittently for a few emergency cases. After the attack on the high seas Egypt announced that it will open the Rafah crossing indefinitely. To continue the siege would have had dangerous internal implications for the regime in Egypt given the widespread unrest by labor unions, students, opposition parties. Hardly more fuel is needed to be added to internal discontent.
But the attack on the Aid ships has actually given the EU an opportunity to play a more active political role than it has hitherto. Throughout the failed Oslo process, EU countries were content to pay the bills in order to keep the Palestinian Authority (PA) afloat, but had little by way of influence politically. Even up to now, the EU showed a distinct lack of political efficacy in terms of influencing the course of the conflict. Now, after the attack, some EU officials clearly see the need to move to lift the siege on Gaza, as this will remain a sore issue that is liable to continue to inflame the conflict in the near future. Already, declarations were made by some organizers that another aid flotilla will be planned in the coming months.
One should expect that the present extreme right- wing government in Israel will resist any such endeavors. But Israel now is on the defensive, and hardly anyone, including many prominent Israelis, believes its PR line that the heavily armed commandos that illegally raided the ships in international waters were killing civilians in self-defense. Still, it remains to be seen if the EU can actually avail itself of this opportunity and overcome the political irrelevance that it had consigned itself to in the past.
As far as the future is concerned, the siege on Gaza, no matter how inhumane in terms of its effect on ordinary people and the suffering it perpetrates, is only one aspect of the story. Ultimately, if the two-state solution cannot be achieved, the conflict will continue and will destabilize the region as a whole. Since the Madrid conference in late 1991, the problem has been that the EU and most Arab states have assumed and indeed behaved on the assumption that all the cards are in the hands of the US. The consequences were disastrous especially under the Bush Administration. Palestinian land continued to be grabbed for illegal settlements, a war on Gaza was launched in December 2008, to be followed by a stricter siege than the one already in place before. The Bush Administration was not an “honest broker” as it often described itself.
Hopes were raised after President Obama took over. But hopes began to diminish soon after he was not able to stop the settlement process. The indirect or “proximity” talks that are underway at present are meant primarily to fill the political vacuum that has existed for nearly 16 months. Not many are optimistic that these talks will lead to a credible political process. A great deal depends on the role of the US but also now the EU if it finds in itself enough political will.
For the PA, Obama is the end of the road. After 19 years of negotiations, there will not be another 19 years of further negotiations. Its legitimacy is being eroded as is the credibility of negotiations. Already there are calls for the dissolution of the PA since its continued existence without a credible political process leading to the two-state solution, is seen by most Palestinians as a cover for Israeli occupation.
The attack on the Aid ships have highlighted in a tragic and dramatic way the need for a stable solution to the conflict. There is no doubt that the US bears a special moral and political responsibility for the failure, but so does the EU and Arab countries as well. Arabs and Israelis accuse each other of never losing an opportunity to lose an opportunity. Dare one hope that the same will not be said of major EU countries in particular?
* George Giacaman Co-Founder and General Director of The Palestinian Institute for the Study of Democracy (Muwatin), based in Ramallah, and professor at Birzeit University. He writes political commentary for International and Arab media.
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